Is Golf Stagnating?
 

I had lunch with a dear friend last week. This person is the author of several successful golf books and as a result, keeps a keen eye on the industry. I learned that worldwide, more people are leaving the game than joining.

Why is this happening and what needs to be done?

Thanks,

Bagger

I think if "we" had to do it over again, we'd build 14-hole courses.

Make it about a 3-hour game with green fees less expensive.

I think the time consumption issue is first, followed by cost.

Make it four hole courses. It's a lot easier to get away for an hour then three, four, or five.

Sorting Through the Golf Nut's Catalogue.

B-Ray

Thats GREAT NEWS. I hope more people leave. I hate waiting 2 hours after sign up to play golf. :)

Golf is Hard
 

Golf is a difficult game. Fewer people stick with hard to do activities because that is human nature. However, there is a group of people who embrace hard to do things because they are hard to do (\\:D/ ](*,) ). My guess is that the number in this "like things difficult" category remains relatively constant over time. Real growth is numbers of players will only arise by stealing from other "hard" activities or making people aware of golf who have never heard of the game. The increase in numbers of players due to the Tiger effect will fall off as these players realize the difficulties involved. Only the hardy will stick with it. The decrease you are seeing is this fall off I suspect. JMHO :|

Stats
 

I'd like to see the actual statistics if anyone has them.

The Out of Box Experience
 

Here's what the author told me.

For the most part, beginning golfers have a miserable experience their first few times out, then never return.

• They start with poor equipment.
• They are humiliated and embarrased by their performance.
• They don't know the basics of making a golf stroke.
• They get hounded by the Marshal for slow play.
• They get hounded by groups behind them for slow play.
• They don't know the rules or etiquette of the game.
• They expect to have at least a few great shots per round like they see on TV, but it rarely happens.

Why would anyone with a start like this ever want to return?
Steph is right-on that there is a challenge factor, and certain personalities are motivated by that, but not the mainstream.

People just want to have fun.\\:D/

So what can be done about this? :confused:
Who are the key stakeholders in insuring that beginners to the game have fun, and look forward to returning?
How can they be prepared?

Bagger

P.S. Trig wanted some stats - This is about 9 months old from the National Golf Foundation www.ngf.org - I couldn't find the latest for 05, but I'll take my friends word.

Great post/thread...

Here is a quick list:

STUPID hard golf courses.

All courses should be 5,200 to 6,200 from the 'white tees,' designed to let you putt it from 1 tee to 18 green, like old Augusta and St. Andrews.

TERRIBLE instruction:

No not terrible TGM instruction, terrible INSTRUCTION. The worst TGMer in the land is at the 90% percentile. PGA, Golf Channel and the magazines are the top reasons.

HORRIBLE leadership:

I once asked at a PGA meeting (to a new person up for election) "What do you stand for"? I was nearly booed, and quickly laughed at.

Thank God for the internet and sites like mine and Lynn's.

If the supply of golf courses keeps on growing and the demand (number of regular golfers) doesn't, I would predict that in the near future competition will drive down greens fees. Although I often think about buying a retirement home in a golf community, I am very concerned that some of these places will find it hard to get and retain members, and that will put tremendous financial pressure on the existing homeowners/members.

It's been a booming real estate market for the last 10 years and many people probably think it won't end -- the same people who thought that about the stock market in March 2000.

Bruce

I think using the statistical chart of Baggers’ and our own historical perspectives that we have nothing too much to worry about, at least, in our lifetimes. For my great grandchildren, whom I have not yet met, I couldn’t care less if they play golf, as long as they don’t do bowling.

The chart indicates that the number of total golfers has increased about 20% during the past fifteen years. The US population has grown from 248M to 293M. For us math wizards, that’s 20%. The group of core golfers appears to have also increased.

Is it true, that the number of new golf courses from 1990-2000, at least equals the largest decade of golf course growth in US history. I don’t have stats to support this, but I’m remembering some stats being thrown around a few years ago.

I think that having to always wait for tee times can give us some insight as to supply and demand.

Also, I don’t know about you guys, but the stink’ in golf outings have got to stop. I swear that if the golf course down the street doesn’t curtail their golf outings, then I’m going to start playing the course three blocks more down the road. I mean it; too.

I saw one outing for legal secretaries. Scary.

This is the big one…..The number of golf books and the amount of training aids being purchased. Obviously, people are trying (just not the foursome ahead of me, lol).

Brian. Sorry to hear about your disappointing experience with the PGA. Unfortunately, most organizations are managed with out leadership. It’s sad. It has always been that way. Government is also an organization. But you have had more experience with the efforts of that organization, right.

I think that there are more golfers than Hunters, Basketball players, racecar drivers, etc.

I don’t know all the reasons why people play golf, or quit. Personally, I have the love-hate relationship going on. I love playing well and scoring low, I hate playing poorly and scoring high. So I practice, log long hours reading forums, read the yellow book, buy Brian’s videos (need more videos), read more forums and practice more, oh, and go to Lynn’s schools.

So, is golf stagnating? Not today.

The Pace of the Game
 

The golf industry is not growing and it's not for lack of marketing. It's lack of introducing new players in a way that makes them want to come back.

I'll try to answer my own questions about what can be done.:)

Golf Courses have a vested interest and most are struggling for greens fees and member enrollment. So rather than cater to the average public golfer or member, they go for the bigger payoffs of corporate outings and special events. The alternative is to attract high volume daily fee players with special incentives on discounted rates plus food, drink, etc. More of a survival than high margin tactic. How many of these courses cater to new, beginning golfers by providing free seminars on the fundamentals of playing tee to green, etiquette, equipment, and set the right expectations for personal growth? How many provide a for-fee seminar with custom clubs for little to no profit just to get a beginner started on the right track? The Club Pro has the responsibility here. The beginning golfer has a great time and guess what? A repeat customer for a long time.;)

Golf Teachers have a vested interest. There is nothing wrong with starting a program for beginning golfers that teach basic mechanics and basic playing. There are ways to take a group of beginners and introduce them to playing. Take an entire group out for 9 holes and show them the way to keep pace. Teach a Community College or University Extension Course and include custom clubs as part of the fee. Have a special event at your equipment store for beginners and give them a seminar on how to play a course, then take them all out!

The Equipment Industry has a vested interest. They are doing everything they can to make equipment forgiving. But I doubt they are making the numbers they would like to make.

The Media has a vested interest. Unfortunately they do nothing to guide beginners on the right path from a mechanics or playing perspective.

The PGA has a vested interest and has the primary responsibility for creating ease of entry to the game. They have failed according to the numbers.

So it's safe to say that the industry is not growing and there are many that would like to see growth, not stagnation. It begins with correct instruction on and off the course. It would be great to see more on-course fundamentals taught for the raw beginner. A lifetime of enjoyment begins there. How many of us introduce our friends to golf this way? I believe experienced golfers, teaching pros, and club pros need to do more in this area. Those that are should be highly commended and supported.

Grab a beginner and take them out next week! Introduce someone new to the game.:D

Bagger

The Author
 

My friend referenced in this thread is Barbara Puett, Author of Golf Etiquette and The Womans Guide to Golf. She studied directly under Harvey Penick and teaches with Chuck Cook at the Barton Creek Resort. Both of her books have had staying power on the shelves of major retailers over the years which is the true measure of a books success. One of her primary mantra's is "Pace of Play".
She also teaches beginners class on Golf at the University of Texas in Austin and holds numerous group seminars all over the country for Women and beginning golfers.
She is a true ambassador for the industry and she has greatly influenced my thoughts about beginning golfers. I'll see if I can get her to post some thoughts here. In return I gave her some dowels with instructions on how to teach with them.

Bagger

I apologize for unnerving you.

However, I disagree. I don’t think that the golf industry is in any danger. This is a big country-world and some places may not be doing as well as others and in some places better.

I think that the golf industry (manufacturing) is creative and can re-invent itself if and when needed.

When you talk about teachers and golf courses, I get the impression that you have mistakenly placed them all in the same category. I’ve met some caring teachers (even if not knowledgeable) and I’ve played at well managed and profitable golf courses. But, alas, they are the minority. However, that is not the Sports fault. Poor management is everywhere. People take lessons from poor teachers, and they may quit the teacher, but they don’t quit golf. It may only be the world that I live in, but I haven’t met an ex-golfer in many years.

Clinics are cool. You can take a horse to water but you can’t make him drink. Some will continue, some will not. The high-schools in my area of the country have Soccer as a team sport, but I don’t see any thirty-something’s playing in the park down the street on weekends, or taking Wednesday off to play Soccer because they just can’t wait to run hard for an hour or two.

I suppose, but I can only speak for myself, that if something is popular, then people will live with a little discomfort to get it. When I see practice ranges full of people, with bleeding hands, continuing to try, not giving up, even during the weeks, months, and years that they don’t improve, then I think the sport is POPULAR.

Private country clubs are not growing (not including Florida). The state of health of the private country club is poor. Most of these have a serious problem, and all of the members, boards of directors and Head pro can’t seem to solve.

I’ll tell you what I think the problem is. STAGNATION. The Private Clubs, head Pro’s, are stagnant. They have been spoon feed for so long that they forgot how to hunt. They have no new ideas, no effort. They have no want. No desire. They don’t care. They would rather crouch in their bars, hide behind doors, pretend that they don’t have a problem, etc, so long as they don’t have to go out in public and market their product. They are placeholders. There needs to be a culling. Maybe the do-nothing teachers and do-nothing golf courses will quit, and make room for aspiring individuals to take their place.

Compare some of the people on this site to others in the industry. There aren’t many people out there like the people in here. I’ve read more about golf than all the Head pros at all three Private Country Clubs I belong to. Each club has a dozen Tournaments per year run mostly by the assistant pros. At two of the clubs, ask the Head pro to do something and you get a look of disbelief. Of the three clubs, guess which one is doing best? Guess which one earns more money?

Golf is many industries. The manufacturers have done a great job. Course management and Teaching is another story all together. The media; are you kidding? They can’t count their money, it’s too much. The PGA, now I know you’re kidding.

Not shook up at all Daryl. I think we are saying the same things. Mine at a macro-level and your examples at a micro-level. It's pretty hard to be specific when discussing the behaviors of 25M to 30M people in a segment. My point is that number hasn't moved significantly in nearly 20 years and according to Barbara, last year saw negative growth. More people left the game than joined. This to me is shocking. :shock:

Even 2-5% real growth year to year after factoring population increase would be enemic by most standards, but in the golf industry it would be a boom.

Bagger

I think it may be a natural progression, or cycle. Boatloads of people took up golf after Woods came on the scene. It would seem normal for a lot of those people to quit after a couple of years thinking "This game aint for me." I think golf is currently on the "down" part of the cycle.

Kind of like Elliott Wave applied to golf, five waves up, three waves down. A bull cycle followed by a bear cycle.

Full Circle
 

That is the crux of the question.
Why is it "normal" for people to leave?
Would vast improvements in instruction and instructor accountability prevent this and thereby grow the industry?

The game is difficult and expensive with a legacy of exclusion.

Note the chart posted tracked the economic trends as a whole. When people have the money, they play, they take lessons and they join clubs.

When they don't, the trends go down.

And to think, our national debt ceiling was just raised by Congress and is now 9 trillion $$$$$$$.

Being in debt doesn't lend itself to playing games. Before long, it's GAME OVER.

To everything, there is a balance.

That IS horrible. Not very professional....among other things.

That's an AMEN for sure....for sure Brian.

I think it's all about economics. The game is hard but that's what makes it so great.

EVERYTHING about golf costs way too much. Period. But if there are enough morons out there that'll pay $400 for a driver (one stinkin' club) whachugonnadu?

Daryl -

Are we looking at the same chart? Looks to me like the total number of golfers has gone from about 26M to 28M, less than a 10% increase. Worse yet, the number of Core golfers is stagnant.

Bruce

Yes. The same chart. No lines on the chart, no glassess on. I was trying to be in the middle.

Somewhere in Secrets and Lies Hebron says There is nothing in all of sports, no experience, no high, like playing golf well.

It's expensive. The instruction is basically horrible. Is tennis instruction as bad? Or ski instruction? Dance lessons? Music lessons?

In the Washington DC metro area five driving ranges have closed in the past year. Yet the public courses are impossibly crowded, and most now charge premium weekend rates on thursday and friday....

It isn't much different now than it was 20 years ago, the golf
SITUATION.

Golfers
 

I'm surprised there is not a greater "Tiger" effect in the chart Bagger showed. I've heard so many times there was a massive Tiger-effect. What the chart shows me is things have stagnated but not turned down necessarily. It looks like the % of golfers considered "core" is pretty steady.

I know by the early 2000's the U.S. had over-built in terms of golf courses. Growth rates in equipment sales has probably slowed and we are starting to see some price competition - which is LONG over due. I'm sorry but a new driver is not worth $400-$500. Manufacturers have been getting away with this because of continued demand. Same is true for the price of golf balls. I think all of the latest developments are 20% technology and 80% marketing.

Golf is just darn expensive and that will always be an inhibitor to bringing new players into the game. Golf is hard. Some people give it up because they never learn enough to enjoy the game. Rounds take a long time. Another detractor.

I've been fortunate to be in a private club for a number of years but I remember the days where I would get up at 5am to try to get a tee time at a muni so I could play a 5 hour round. It didn't stop me from playing but I bet it is a detractor to many people taking up the game.

all about the benjamins...
 

I'm still one of the guys heading to the local muni, and I can tell you if golf were cheaper, I and a lot of people I know would play more, and probably end up spending more in the end. Other than high-school and J.H. golf at one of our local schools, there is very little going on in our area to attract new golfers. Despite there being 3 universities and numerous high schools in the immediate area, our local courses are rarely busy.

...as for equipment prices :rolleyes: